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Date:22-08-18

विदेशी मोर्चे पर चहुंओर बढ़ाई साख

मोदी सरकार ने अपनी कारगर विदेश नीति के जरिए उभरती वैश्विक शक्ति के रूप में भारत की साख को बढ़ाने का काम किया है।

विवेक काटजू , (लेखक विदेश मंत्रालय में सचिव रहे हैं)

विदेश नीति पर प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी के इस आकलन को दुरुस्त ही कहा जाएगा कि ‘हम तेजी से बदलती दुनिया में रह रहे हैं, जहां अनिश्चितताओं की भरमार है। इसमें संदेह नहीं कि दुनिया व्यापक राजनीतिक, सामाजिक एवं आर्थिक और इन सबसे भी बढ़कर तकनीकी बदलाव के दौर से गुजर रही है। सभी देश अपनी घरेलू और विदेश नीति के जरिए इस बदलाव से ताल मिलाने की कोशिश में हैं। अपने अब तक के कार्यकाल में प्रधानमंत्री मोदी ने पूरी ऊर्जा के साथ उन देशों से रिश्ते मजबूत बनाने के सार्थक प्रयास किए हैं, जिनके साथ भारत के रिश्ते अच्छे रहे हैं या अतीत में उनकी अनदेखी होती रही। ऐसे कुछ देशों का दौरा करने वाले वह पहले भारतीय प्रधानमंत्री बने। वह कुछ ऐसे देशों में भी गए, जहां किसी भारतीय पीएम को गए लंबा अरसा हो गया था। विदेश मंत्री सुषमा स्वराज और उनके वरिष्ठ अधिकारियों ने भारत की कूटनीतिक सक्रियता की गति और दायरा बढ़ाया है। उनकी व्यापक पहुंच ने उभरती हुई वैश्विक शक्ति के रूप में भारत की साख को बढ़ाने का काम किया है।

बीते चार वर्षों में मोदी ने भारत के पड़ोसी देशों, दक्षिण-पूर्व एशियाई देशों और पश्चिम एशियाई देशों पर विशेष रूप से ध्यान केंद्रित किया है। इन क्षेत्रों में भारत के महत्वपूर्ण सामरिक एवं आर्थिक हित जुड़े हैं। मोदी की ‘एक्ट ईस्ट नीति की सफलता को इससे मापा जा सकता है कि इस साल गणतंत्र दिवस पर आसियान के सभी दस देशों के शासनाध्यक्ष दिल्ली में मौजूद थे। पश्चिम एशिया में भारी उथल-पुथल मची है। वहां तमाम देशों में तरह-तरह की खाइयां बन गई हैं। इन विरोधाभासों को मात देकर भारत अपने हित कुशलतापूर्वक साधने में सफल रहा है। इसके चलते सऊदी अरब, संयुक्त अरब अमीरात, ईरान, इसरायल और फलस्तीन जैसे अलग-अलग धड़ों वाले देशों से भारत के संबंध समय के साथ और बेहतर हुए हैं। यह वाकई एक बड़ी उपलब्धि है। अब जरूरत इसकी है कि भारत खासतौर से आसियान देशों के साथ व्यापारिक रिश्ते बेहतर बनाने पर विशेष ध्यान दे।

अफ्रीका और दक्षिण प्रशांत के देशों के साथ रिश्तों को नया आयाम देने में भी मोदी ने सराहनीय काम किया है। इंडिया-अफ्रीका सम्मेलन के दौरान सभी अफ्रीकी देशों की भारत में मौजूदगी ने यही दर्शाया कि वे भारत के साथ अपने संबंधों में औपनिवेशिक शासन के खिलाफ संघर्ष वाले पचास एवं साठ के दशक वाली गर्मजोशी वापस चाहते हैं। दक्षिण प्रशांत देशों की बैठक को भी इसी परिप्रेक्ष्य में देखना होगा कि भारत को विकासशील देशों के साथ भी अपने संबंधों में निरंतरता कायम रखने की दरकार है।

दुनिया के महत्वपूर्ण नेताओं के साथ निजी रिश्ते बनाने में भी मोदी ने काफी मेहनत की है। इस फेहरिस्त में चीन के राष्ट्रपति शी जिनपिंग, रूसी राष्ट्रपति व्लादिमिर पुतिन और अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप जैसे प्रमुख नाम शामिल हैं। कूटनीति की राह आसान करने वाले ऐसे रिश्ते राष्ट्रीय हितों से अहम नहीं हो सकते। भारत-चीन संबंधों में यह नजर भी आता है। मोदी ने चीन को लेकर भारत के रवैये को स्पष्ट करते हुए सभी संभावित क्षेत्रों में सहयोग बढ़ाने की दिशा में काम किया और असहमतियों को विवादों की शक्ल भी नहीं लेने दी। भारत के लिए महत्वपूर्ण है कि भारत-चीन सीमा पर शांति कायम रहे, लेकिन इसमें कोई भ्रम नहीं होना चाहिए कि चीन उलझे हुए मुद्दों को जल्द सुलझाने का उत्सुक भी नहीं है।

पिछले साल डोकलाम विवाद के दौरान उससे दृढ़तापूर्वक निपटकर मोदी ने बढ़िया किया। चीन के साथ पाकिस्तान की बढ़ती नजदीकियां गंभीर चिंता का विषय हैं। चीन-पाकिस्तान गठजोड़ भारत के खिलाफ ही काम करेगा। इसके अलावा चीन भारत के सभी पड़ोसी देशों के साथ भी आक्रामक रूप से संबंध मजबूत बना रहा है। इसमें उसका आर्थिक रुतबा भी मददगार बना हुआ है। इसकी वजह से मालदीव और नेपाल जैसे देशों के साथ भारत के रिश्ते और जटिल हुए हैं। इन देशों को संदेश देने की जरूरत है कि भारत अपने हितों के साथ कोई समझौता नहीं चाहेगा। चीन के उदय से चिंतित जापान, दक्षिण कोरिया और ऑस्ट्रेलिया जैसे देशों के साथ रिश्तों को धार देकर मोदी ने एकदम सही रणनीति अपनाई, लेकिन इस मोर्चे पर और प्रयास करने की आवश्यकता है।

अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति ट्रंप के कुछ अस्थिर बयानों और फैसलों ने उन क्षेत्रों में भारत-अमेरिकी रिश्तों की थाह का अनुमान लगाना मुश्किल कर दिया है, जो भारत के हितों को प्रभावित करने की क्षमता रखते हैं। इनमें व्यापार और आव्रजन जैसे मुद्दे शामिल हैं। हालांकि अमेरिका व्यापक संदर्भों में भारत को एक महत्वपूर्ण साझेदार मानता है और मोदी को श्रेय दिया जाना चाहिए कि वह अमेरिका से रक्षा और अंतरिक्ष जैसे संवेदनशील क्षेत्रों में उच्च तकनीक हासिल करने में सफल हुए हैं, लेकिन ईरान पर लगाए गए ट्रंप के प्रतिबंध भारत की ऊर्जा सुरक्षा और कनेक्टिविटी पर संकट के बादल खड़े कर रहे हैं। पुराने वफादार दोस्त रूस के साथ रिश्तों को निभाने में भी मोदी सफल रहे हैं, लेकिन भारत को इस पर ध्यान देना होगा कि मास्को अब पाकिस्तान के साथ अपने रिश्ते बढ़ा रहा है। बदलते समीकरण अंतरराष्ट्रीय संबंधों का एक खास पहलू होता है और कोई भी देश अतीत की स्मृतियों के सहारे नहीं रह सकता।

जलवायु परिवर्तन, अंतरराष्ट्रीय आतंकवाद जैसी चुनौतियों के साथ ही संयुक्त राष्ट्र सुधारों के माध्यम से वैश्विक मंचों पर नई दिल्ली की भूमिका व्यापक बनाने जैसे मुद्दों पर बीते चार वर्षों में भारत ने अहम भूमिका निभाई है। वैश्विक स्तर पर भारत की साख का अंदाजा इससे लगाया जा सकता है कि अंतरराष्ट्रीय न्यायालय में न्यायाधीश के लिए उसने ब्रिटेन के उम्मीदवार को मात दी। भारत की विकास गाथा में योगदान के लिए दुनियाभर में फैले भारतवंशियों को जोड़ने में भी मोदी सफल हुए हैं। अमेरिका में प्रवासी भारतीयों का तबका भारत के लिए प्रभावी लॉबी का काम करता है। आने वाले दिनों में यह तबका अमेरिकी राजनीति में अहम भूमिका अदा करेगा। पाकिस्तान की बात करें तो उसे लेकर मोदी की नीतियों ने एक चक्र पूरा कर लिया है। उन्होंने अपने पूर्ववर्तियों की ही तरह इस उम्मीद के साथ शुरुआत की कि पाकिस्तान को अक्ल आएगी और वह भारत के प्रति अपने नकारात्मकता के भाव को तिलांजलि देगा। मोदी के तमाम प्रयासों के बावजूद पाकिस्तान अपनी हरकतों से बाज नहीं आया और पठानकोट से लेकर उरी में हमलों को अंजाम देता रहा। यथार्थवादी मोदी ने इसके जवाब में सर्जिकल स्ट्राइक को अंजाम देकर पाकिस्तान से संवाद बंद कर दिया। अब भारत यह प्रक्रिया तभी शुरू करेगा, जब पाकिस्तान आतंक का रास्ता छोड़ने की पहल करेगा। इमरान खान द्वारा सकारात्मक संकेत देने के बावजूद भारत को अपना रवैया नरम करने की जरूरत नहीं। उम्मीद कभी भी विदेश नीति का आधार नहीं हो सकती।

Date:22-08-18

Icing on the Moon

Chandrayaan-supported discovery of lunar surface water will boost space exploration

TOI Editorials

In a significant discovery, scientists have found water ice in the shadowy craters of the Moon’s poles for the first time. The discovery was confirmed using data from Nasa’s Moon mineralogy mapper instrument, on board India’s Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft. What makes this discovery special is that the water ice is surface exposed as opposed to previous discoveries locating water beneath the lunar surface. Thus, from a technical point of view, the surface water could be more easily exploited for future lunar missions.

This in turn opens up an array of possibilities. We could carry out longer manned missions to the Moon. An accessible source of water bolsters the idea of constructing a Moon base which could, among other things, serve as a launchpad for manned missions to other parts of the solar system. It should also excite those toying with the idea of a Moon colony – given over-exploitation of resources on Earth, that idea is no longer purely in the realm of fantasy. It’s noteworthy that the surface water ice discovery, though made by Nasa’s instruments, had a strong Indian hand. This highlights how far the Indian space programme has come in the last few decades.

Today, Isro’s satellite launching facilities are respected globally. Recall how Isro launched 104 satellites with one rocket last year. It’s this stellar record of the Indian space agency that allowed Prime Minister Narendra Modi to announce during his Independence Day speech that the country would launch a manned space mission by 2022. Such a mission would showcase Isro’s technical capabilities to the world and garner further contracts for it. With foreign space programmes also looking to up their game, it’s clear that space technology will be the next big area of focus. India should play its role here.

Date:22-08-18

WTO on the Brink

By invoking national security clause, Trump goes for nuclear option in trade war

Arvind Panagariya , [The writer is Professor of Economics at Columbia University.]

A trade war is now in progress on two fronts. The United States opened the first front by imposing a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariff on aluminium imports from a large number of its trading partners. That led many damaged parties to take retaliatory actions. China was the first to respond with a 25% tariff on $3 billion worth of food imports from the US. Mexico, Turkey, European Union and Canada followed suit once it became apparent that the US would not grant them the exemption from tariff they had sought.

On the second front, the US has exclusively targeted China by slapping 25% tariff on a wide variety of imports worth $34 billion from it. China hit back in this instance as well, imposing 25% tariff on $34 billion worth of imports from the US. The US has threatened China with 25% tariff on another $200 billion worth of imports. China has said it will respond in kind. Imposition of tariffs by members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not unusual. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which governs goods trade among WTO members, contains numerous “safeguard” provisions allowing member countries to raise tariffs under specified circumstances. What is unusual about these tariffs is that they do not fall within the domain of any of these safeguard provisions.

Instead, the US has justified steel and aluminium tariffs under the rarely invoked GATT Article XXI, otherwise known as the national security clause. It has not spelt out the GATT article under which it has imposed the tariffs targeting China, but with no other provision applicable these too will have to be justified under the national security clause. As it stands, each party engaged in the trade war has formally complained against the offending party in the WTO dispute settlement body (DSB). The critical question facing DSB is how to approach the disputes involving the national security clause. The relevant provision in this clause says, “Nothing in this Agreement shall be construed … to prevent any contracting party from taking any action which it considers necessary for the protection of its essential security interests.” Accordingly, a member country may violate any WTO rule if such violation is necessary to protect its national security interests.

More importantly, according to many leading legal scholars of the WTO, the member country has the sole right to decide what actions are necessary to protect its national security interests. This means that actions under this clause are beyond review by the DSB. To date, there have been very few disputes under this clause and not a single one of them has reached the review stage in the DSB or its equivalent under GATT. The dilemma the DSB faces is that if it allows a review, the US may simply walk out of WTO on the ground that such a review is forbidden under the clause. At the same time, if US actions are allowed to stand without a review, it will signal to member countries that anything is fair game so long as it is played under the national security clause. In either case, the multilateral trading system will be seriously damaged.

The question then is whether the matter can be resolved through negotiations among the affected parties. Unfortunately, prospects for this are not bright either. Both the key players in this conflict, the US and China, seem determined not to give ground. From being the architect of the open world trading system in the post-Second World War era, today the United States has descended into a state in which it feels it is a victim of that same system. It aggressively seeks redress from large trading partners, notably China.

The president’s 2018 Trade Policy Report to the Congress expresses his determination on the matter in these words, “The United States will not allow the WTO – or any other multilateral organization – to prevent us from taking actions that are essential to the economic well-being of the American people.” China, the other major party in the conflict, is a young but equally aggressive power. Judging by its assertive posturing in South China Sea and Belt and Road Initiative, prospects that it will retreat from the battle are bleak. It has already made good on its promise of retaliation in both cases involving it and has made clear that it will respond in kind to any further actions by the US.

In the immediate future, the only hope is that after midterm elections in November, President Trump would return to a more conciliatory position. If not, serious damage to the trading system is inevitable. A Panglossian may still argue that the vast damage that a wider trade war would inflict would at last convince political leaderships that trade openness is not the enemy, protectionism is. If so, this would be a replay of history that saw the highly prosperous First Globalisation from 1870 to 1914 descend into escalating protection during inter-war years. Lessons learned from that phase of protectionism brought the global leadership together to build what came to be known as the GATT-WTO system.

Date:21-08-18

The Real Rural Crisis

Rural India cannot be viewed solely through prism of farming. Crisis in rural areas today is actually one of too much agriculture.

Editorial

Hardly 23 per cent of the average income of all rural households in India comes from agriculture and animal husbandry activity, reveals a nationwide financial inclusion survey by NABARD. Moreover, even among so-called agricultural households — those with at least one member engaged in farming and whose produce is annually worth Rs 5,000 or more — just over 43 per cent of income on an average comes from cultivation and livestock rearing. These findings confirm a trend that has been obvious since the start of this century: Rural India can no longer be viewed solely through the prism of farming. Even more misplaced is the impression of a widening Bharat-India divide conveyed by agriculture contributing “only” about 17 per cent of the country’s GDP at current prices, despite two-thirds of its population living in rural areas. If just 47.6 per cent of rural households are “agricultural”, as per the NABARD survey, and 43.1 per cent of even their incomes are from farms, the gap isn’t as yawning as made out.

The crisis in rural areas today is actually one of too much agriculture — in terms of both relative output and employment. What is needed is more manufacturing units, including those that process and add value to agricultural produce. China’s industrialisation in the late-Seventies and Eighties was driven by Township and Village Enterprises. There is ample scope to replicate that experience in India and extend it to services such as business process outsourcing or even software development. We do have stories of success — in the rural-based manufacturing clusters of Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, for instance — but they are far too isolated. With 24×7 electricity, all-weather roads, broadband connectivity and investment in education — which is what the government should focus on — we can expect an unleashing of rural entrepreneurship. That will help generate better quality non-farm employment than is now available in brick kilns, stone quarries, farm implement repair, construction and other such informal sector enterprises.

What will happen if more rural jobs are created outside of agriculture? Well, the beneficiary, ironically, would be the farm sector. As people are weaned off the land, the ones remaining, and truly interested in agriculture, will be induced to invest in its productivity. Farming will, then, cease to be a default occupation and the agriculture sector would gain from the processes of specialisation and division of labour that Adam Smith famously described in The Wealth of Nations. That is the route ahead — both for “Bharat” and for “krishi”.

Date:21-08-18

Lending a Hand

Challenges remain but response of political leadership, state and civil society to Kerala flood crisis is heartening.

Editorial

The worst of Kerala’s devastating deluge seems to be over with relief operations across the state nearing conclusion. On Sunday, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan outlined the roadmap the state government intends to follow in the coming days as the focus shifts from rescue missions to relief measures. He assured the people that all necessary help will be provided at every step as they return home to rebuild their lives. It is reassuring that the government appears to be calm and ready with plans and personnel for all aspects of relief work — be it restoring power supply or removal of waste, taking care of sanitation issues or repairing water pipes — involving state agencies, civil society groups and the thousands of volunteers already in the forefront of the rescue mission.

While the scale of floods has been unprecedented, the response to the tragedy has been heartening. The state government and its agencies, central forces including the national disaster response force, the army, navy and air force, civil society, ranging from NGOs to self-help groups, resident welfare associations, the Malayali diaspora, and neighbouring states — all have been quick to respond to the tragedy. They have worked overtime to reach out to those in distress and ensured that the camps have adequate water and food stocks. A standout feature of the rescue operations has been the selfless role of the state’s fishermen, who came with their boats and braved vicious currents to access places and homes that the police, army and naval personnel could not reach.

The task before the government now is to build on the momentum and steer relief and rehabilitation. This is the third major natural disaster to strike the state this year — Cyclone Ockhi and the Nipah virus outbreak had taken a toll, though not on this scale. Preliminary estimates of the government peg the cost of the floods at Rs 20,000 crore. The state government has requested Rs 2,000 crore as assistance from the Centre and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised Rs 500 crore. The state, hopefully, will not be short of funds to rebuild its public and private infrastructure — individual donations, contributions from the diaspora and the Gulf states besides government funds should bridge the shortfall. The scale of destruction and the measures it calls for will be fully revealed only when the water recedes completely from the flood-affected areas. The immediate task, however, would be to stave off possible health emergencies and epidemics and facilitate the return of people to their homes. It should, however, be reassuring for Kerala’s residents to know in their hour of need, help is at hand.

Date:21-08-18

Educating people about climate change

Vulnerable populations should be made aware of the potential risks and how to cope with them

Sohini Mitra is a Bengaluru-based market research professional.

Climate change has the potential to disrupt and reshape lives. There are several alarming predictions about its impact. The UN Sustainable Goals Report, 2018 notes that climate change is among the key factors in rising hunger and human displacement. The World Health Organisation estimates that climate change will cause an additional 250,000 deaths per year between 2030 and 2050, due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress. Undoubtedly, much of this loss will be accounted for by low-income groups in developing nations, including India. The World Bank projects that climate change could cost India 2.8% of its GDP, and diminish living standards for nearly half the country’s population, in the next 30-odd years.

These bleak scenarios raise questions. Do those most at risk know about climate change? Is there sufficient awareness about its causes, especially about anthropogenic contributions? Do vulnerable groups know the manifestations of climate change, and are they aware that it could potentially affect the health, livelihoods and lives of their families and communities, of present and future generations ?

Various initiatives

Several initiatives have been implemented to create awareness about climate change — about how to mitigate it and adapt to it. In 1991, the Supreme Court directed the Central government and all State governments to provide compulsory environmental education to all students in schools and colleges. This directive was reiterated in 2003 (M.C Mehta v. Union of India). Corporate organisations, research and education institutes, NGOs and foundations have committed themselves to educating people about climate change and providing the know-how for mitigation, adaptation and resilience building. These initiatives target urban and rural populations including schoolgoing children. Their thrust ranges from inculcating the concept of environmental sustainability to driving home the impact of climate change on food, water, nutrition and health.

However, despite these efforts, and the reach of the court’s order, climate change seems to find low salience in everyday lives and conversations. Most of the country’s plans for vulnerable populations are directed towards poverty alleviation, improving living standards, enhancing access to education, sanitation, healthcare and ensuring human rights. Climate change finds little mention. It must receive greater prominence because the lives of a large number of the population is at risk. It is important that they know how to address and minimise the risks they face. So, what more can be done?

The Way Forward

At present, climate change does not find specific mention in Schedule VII of the Companies Act, 2013. However, if it were to be articulated and specified as an activity for corporate social responsibility (CSR), rather than be implied in the umbrella term of environmental sustainability, organisations may be encouraged to view it with increased importance and clarity and lend more weight to creating awareness, mitigation and resilience-building. Schedule VII would then need to be amended from “ensuring environmental sustainability, ecological balance, protection of flora and fauna, animal welfare, agroforestry, conservation of natural resources and maintaining quality of soil, air and water” to include climate change as an area for investment.

Scaling up current initiatives of the corporate and social sectors to regional or national levels would be an early, albeit challenging, solution. Efforts on this front could be facilitated and amplified by companies’ CSR activities. The National CSR Data Portal reports corporate spends on environment, animal welfare and conservation of resources to be ₹801 crore in 2014-15 and ₹912 crore in 2015-16. Clearly, business organisations are willing to invest their money in issues related to the environment. Similarly, the film industry could consider ways to incorporate key aspects of climate change in films, writers could introduce climate change in adult and children’s literature, and gaming companies could develop games on this theme. Given the startling forecasts about the impact of climate change, it is the need of the hour to educate and equip both rural and urban communities to build resilience against natural disasters, adapt to environmental changes, and manage potential risk.