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Date: 01-06-16

देश में रोजगार संकट की क्या हैं वजह?

अभीक बरुआ और तुषार अरोड़ा

बड़े पैमाने पर विनिर्माण को लेकर अत्यंत कम अवसर और कमजोर तकनीकी प्रशिक्षण के चलते देश में बेरोजगारी का संकट गंभीर होता जा रहा है। इस संबंध में बता रहे हैं अभीक बरुआ और तुषार अरोड़ा

 Date: 01-06-16

Scrap sourcing rule for all retailers

The commerce ministry wants to convince the finance ministry to ease the rule on mandatory local procurement for iPhone maker Apple. Removing the local sourcing norm is welcome, but not doing it selectively for some.

The sourcing rule, which mandates single-brand retailers to buy at least 30% of what they sell from Indian vendors — preferably from micro, small and medium enterprises, village and cottage industries, and artisans — must be scrapped.

Fiddling with policy — to define cutting-edge technology for a product to qualify for an exemption from the sourcing rule — is needless. A case-to-case approach will also raise concerns on arbitrariness.

Some goods can be made efficiently and cheaper in large enterprises, and some other goods, such as automobile components, in small units.

The best course is to allow the economics of production — scale, capital intensity, cost of skills, transport costs and so on — to determine where and how things are produced, depending on the underlying forces of technology at any point of time.

The decision on how much to source locally and how much from abroad must be left to the retailer. 

Make in India should not become screwdriver assembly of imported kits. To make India a manufacturing hub and nurture the SME sector, we need reforms on multiple fronts.

Manufacturing is throttled by the shortage of power, capital, roads, telecom connectivity, efficient logistics and skills, besides red tape and corruption.

The government is moving determinedly to remove these constraints and raise India’s ranking on the ease of doing business.

States are vying hard to improve the ecosystem and offer incentives. Infrastructure is being improved. Trust these measures to boost manufacture, rather than choke retail with irrational conditions.

Date: 31-05-16

Raja Mandala: Regional India, global South Asia

As other powers engage South Asian nations, Delhi must deal with a changing Subcontinent.

Written by C. Raja Mohan

Their presence at the G-7 summit at Ise-Shima, Japan, last week was hardly noticed in India. But among the six leaders of the developing world present in the outreach session were Sheikh Hasina, prime minister of Bangladesh, and Maithripala Sirisena, president of Sri Lanka.

The Japanese invitation to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka underlines the remarkable rise in Tokyo’s strategic interest in the Subcontinent. It also highlights the growing salience of South Asian nations on the international stage.

Japan is a late entrant to this game; China has already begun to integrate India’s neighbours into its larger international and regional strategies. The $ 46 billion China-Pakistan economic corridor is only one example. In another, Beijing has given Colombo and Kathmandu the status of a “dialogue partner” in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

As other powers begin to devote quality time to engaging South Asian nations, big and small, Delhi must lend additional depth and energy to its current “neighbourhood first” strategy. Above all, it must come to terms with the unfolding globalisation of the Subcontinent.

Much of the international discourse on South Asia often gets reduced to the India-Pakistan relations; this only helps mask the significance of the other nations in the region. And the reference to them as “smaller nations” of the region is largely inaccurate.

In terms of population size, Bangladesh is the eighth largest in the world with its numbers standing at more than 160 million. Afghanistan (33mn) Nepal (29mn) and Sri Lanka (21mn) are at 40th, 46th and 57th positions respectively. Only Bhutan and Maldives, with their populations below 1 mn, may be termed as mini states.

Since independence, India has been compelled to pay special attention to a Pakistan that punched way above its weight in the world. An Islamic identity, critical geopolitical location, association with Western military alliances and the possession of nuclear weapons have given Pakistan much weight in regional affairs.

India has also devoted considerable energy towards Afghanistan that has been at the centre of the Great Game for more than two centuries. It has become a vital part of India’s strategy towards Pakistan and the battle against violent religious extremism. With its focus on the Af-Pak region, however, Delhi has tended to miss the growing strategic significance of the other nations in the neighbourhood.

Bangladesh is today one of the fastest growing economies of the world and is open to massive investments in the infrastructure sector. No wonder, China and Japan are competing vigorously for project contracts in Bangladesh. Both Beijing and Tokyo also see the country as the fulcrum of the eastern subcontinent and a bridge between South Asia, China and South East Asia.

Long viewed as India’s buffers to the north, Bhutan and Nepal have now become theatres of contestation with China. To the South, Sri Lanka is rediscovering its central location in the Indian Ocean, as all major powers like China, US and Japan pay unprecedented attention to Colombo.

Maldives, which straddles the vital sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean, has now become a highly coveted piece of maritime real estate as China turns its gaze upon the Indian Ocean.

The new geopolitical dynamism animating all corners of South Asia poses a number of important challenges for India. One, Delhi no longer has the luxury of viewing the region as India’s “backyard”. It must begin to recognise the growing gulf between its claims of primacy in the region and the growing economic, political and military influence of China in the Subcontinent.

Two, the new international opportunities have allowed the ruling elites in our neighbourhood to pursue greater “strategic autonomy” from India. This means Delhi will have to work harder than ever before to retain its historic leverages in the neighbourhood.

Three, the economic geography of the Subcontinent was inherently in India’s favour. Partition, the inward economic orientation of socialist India, and the neglect of connectivity and commerce at and across the frontiers has seen Delhi squander many of the inherited advantages. Modi’s India is trying hard to compensate but the scale and scope of its initiatives are no match to the Chinese efforts to reconfigure the economic geography of the Subcontinent.

Four, India’s “neighbourhood first” strategy is complicated by its deep involvement in the internal politics of the South Asian nations. Unlike in the past, those who resent India’s intervention don’t have to merely lump it. They have countered it by seeking intervention of other powers. Delhi, therefore, will have to rethink the nature of its intervention in the internal affairs of its neighbours.

Last but not the least, India must stop seeing itself as the “lone ranger” in South Asia. While it must necessarily compete with rival powers when they threaten its interests, it must also learn to collaborate with friendly powers, wherever possible, in shaping the regional environment. This requires a new mindset in Delhi that focuses on strategic regional outcomes rather than the right to unilateral means.

Date: 01-06-16

Seeking synergy, not ideology

Government should partner civil society, but the latter’s advocacy should be evidence-based.

Civil society is a global phenomenon. It is widely known as an influential ‘third sector’, after the government and business/ industry. Civil society is a natural partner of the socioeconomic development of a nation. Any government would recognise its worth and would naturally prefer to work with this sector for the growth and success of the country.

In India, we have a vibrant civil society. However, the relationship between civil society and the state seems to be very often quite adversarial. Civic or public engagement with the state needs to be meaningful, so that the effectiveness of the government is enhanced in shaping its policies and programmes. The government has to tap into the knowledge, experience, ideas and insights shared by civil society and suitably dovetail them into policy-making processes. This, however, cannot be done in a partisan or ad hoc manner.

The NDA government is open to partnership and dialogue with civil society and business, and has taken definitive steps in this regard. The idea of the government is to make policy formulation and decision-making more transparent and accountable.

It has been noticed that many issues of concern to civil society are still to be addressed. Civil society or the voluntary sector plays a very crucial role in addressing rural poverty and empowering people. Its contribution to nation building is vital.

But the sector is facing many challenges and impediments as it is still regulated or controlled by a set of almost obsolete or redundant laws. The registration laws, Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA), provisions in the income tax laws – all these need to be periodically reviewed and revised in order to enable the sector to function independently and impartially.

Even after 69 years of Independence, we are still talking about ‘azadi’ from poverty, unemployment, inequality, etc. Is this not the failure of our long-standing policies and attitudes? We have to fix the responsibilities of any such failures to the past misrule of the country. Civil society should learn to engage in evidence-based advocacy rather than an ideology-based approach, which would make its very motives seem suspect. A few of them are bigots and engage in partisan campaigns against the government.

I would not hesitate to challenge the attempts of a few small-minded and petty groups among civil society who claim that only their viewpoints are correct, just and democratic and representative of a larger public opinion. They do not seem to recognise the wisdom of the elected representatives in a democracy. This apparently is due to their partisan perception nurtured by select political ideologies.

Civil society has to be apolitical. Representatives of civil society tend to lose their legitimacy when their actions acquire unmistakable political hues yoked to certain ideologies. Political neutrality is indispensable for credible civic engagement. A needless and baseless paranoia has been created that the NDA government is against civil society.

A few frustrated ‘beneficiaries’ of the previous regimes are undemocratically and unfairly spreading a politics of hatred against this government and its leader. Unlike the previous government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the NDA government came to power with an overwhelming majority. We believe in upholding the principles of democracy and the rule of law, two of the key elements for good governance.

While we respect dissent and freedom of speech and expression, the government cannot be a mute onlooker when violations of the laws take place. Moreover, dissent and freedom of expression are not absolute and are subject to reasonable restrictions.

The FCRA or the sedition laws are not the sudden invention of this government. They have been on the statute for long and there was never any genuine attempt to debate on these issues. I personally feel that genuine concerns need to be addressed through open debate and cooperation.

The government is duty-bound to take action against violators of the law, or those who abuse the system and create agitation and restlessness in society. The government has a moral and constitutional duty to maintain peace and harmony and law and order under all situations in the country.

With regard to FCRA issues, let me state on record that all the review and process of suspending or cancelling the registrations of organisations which violated FCRA started during the previous regime, especially from the time the anti-Kudankulam nuclear power plant agitation began. Many organisations were put under the scanner during the previous UPA government.

The government needs constructive criticism to improve its policies and programmes. The country has countless challenges and concerns which include poverty, unemployment, education, malnutrition, drought, agriculture, climate change, water, sanitation, open defecation, TB and public health. Addressing these issues is the topmost priority of the government, a task which demands the combined efforts of the government, civil society as well as that of business and industry.

The 2014 general election gave us a democratic as well as a historic verdict, which paved the way for an important regime shift. The government is answerable and accountable to fulfil the mandate – a mandate for development. We do strongly believe in respecting and nurturing the plural ethos of the nation.

Date: 31-05-16

No country for the old?

When it was reported that Kanubhai Gandhi, grandson of Mahatma Gandhi, and his wife moved into an old age home in New Delhi recently, it caused a stir, with the Prime Minister promptly calling Mr. Gandhi, and two Ministers, one from the Union government and the other from the Delhi government, paying them visits. The Prime Minister also reportedly directed the authorities to ensure that the couple has a comfortable stay at the Guru Vishram Vridh Ashram.

His concern must have caused a collective sigh of relief for the 87.6 million people aged above 60 in India, as it drew the attention of a nation almost obsessed with its ‘demographic dividend’ to a crucial problem. Considering India is expected to be home to 300 million elderly people by 2050, it is time it paid heed to the problems of those who are as old, or even older, than the independent nation itself is today. Else the country will be faced with a large incidence of degenerative diseases, accompanied with serious gaps in the geriatric medical ecosystem, a changing joint family structure, the lack of ‘grey-friendliness’ in public spaces, transport, housing, and a virtually non-existing policy framework to tackle these issues.

Taking care of the elderly

With about 50 per cent of the elderly being financially dependent on others, it is affordable housing, healthcare, and the psychological and social manifestations of ageing that we will struggle to respond to as a country with no social security and dismal elderly care facilities.What will be the combined impact of this trend on small, nuclear families, along with an improvement in lifestyle and an increase in degenerative diseases and life spans, especially for women? Where are we going to live as we grow old and who is going to take care of us?

Clearly Parliament had some of these issues in mind when it passed the Maintenance and Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizens Act in 2007. The model Act makes it obligatory for children or relatives to provide maintenance to senior citizens and parents. It also provides for the setting up of old age homes by State governments.

Despite this, however, it is a fact that most people in India would rather suffer than have the family name sullied by taking their own children to court for not providing for them. This need to maintain a façade is combined with a lack of knowledge of rights, the inherent inability of the elderly to approach a tribunal for recourse under the law, and poor implementation of the Act by various State governments.

So what happens to those who have been turned out from their homes, or have lost a partner, or just can’t manage to live on their own anymore, especially since the number of old age homes the Centre supports under the Integrated Programme for Older Persons (IPOP) has seen a decline from 269 homes in 2012-13 to a dismal 137 in 2014-15? The Centre has asked State governments to ensure that there are old-age homes whose functioning can be supported under IPOP, but since it is optional for the State governments to do so, the total number of old-age homes remains abysmally low.

Need for a pragmatic approach

While we hope that the Indian family continues to be stronger than in most countries and provides a caring environment for the elderly, it can’t be the basis for our ability to support the elderly. India needs to take a serious look at the needs of the elderly in a more pragmatic and holistic manner. For starters it could focus on the three key aspects of health, housing, and dignity.

Each of these is a large issue on its own, but it is important to first strengthen the health-care system. If 18 per cent of the population is going to be over 60 years of age by 2050, then it becomes almost crucial to encourage research in geriatric diseases, and push for building capacity in the geriatric departments across the primary and tertiary health-care systems. There also seems to be a growing informal industry of home care providers, which urgently needs regulation and mandated guidelines so that a large pool of certified and affordable trained home care givers can help provide basic support, prevent unnecessary hospital admissions, and keep the elderly in the familiar environs of their homes as far as possible.

Next, there needs to be a network of old age homes, both in the private and public sector. While the private sector has taken the lead in setting up some state-of-the-art facilities, most of these are priced well out of the reach of ordinary citizens. State governments must be mandated to set up quality, affordable homes.

As traditionally supportive social structures are changing and the elderly are increasingly losing their ‘status’ as the family patriarchs, it is also time that we did our bit to help address the indignities and loneliness that this change is bringing. Businesses could look at harnessing the talent of elders by retaining or hiring older workers and offering flexible working hours for those who want to continue working after retirement. Industry will benefit by retaining their knowledge and experience and the elderly will continue to be financially independent and retain their sense of self-worth. At the community level we also need to increase the avenues for older people to participate in local issues, in resident associations, set up and manage spaces for community interaction, to leverage their experience as a resource, give them an opportunity to share their concerns, and o help them feel that they contribute socially and have a purpose in life.

The one big issue that doesn’t get enough attention today is that old people deserve dignity. Apart from ensuring appropriate medical help, there needs to be more awareness about common degenerative diseases like dementia so that family members, care-givers, and society at large are sensitised to incontinence, the momentary lack of comprehension, the hallucinations — all the painful behavioural, physical, emotional and mental struggles of those who suffer from these diseases.

In a country that still worships Bapu, there is hope that we will thank his grandson some day for setting off a much-needed discussion on the painful issues that senior citizens face today.

Barkha Deva is Associate Director at the Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Contemporary Studies. These are her personal views.

Date: 31-05-16

The MGNREGA index

SHOBHIT MATHUR & NOMESH BOLIA

The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act of 2005 (MGNREGA) aims at “enhancing the livelihood security of people in rural areas by guaranteeing 100 days of wage-employment in a financial year to a rural household whose adult members volunteer to do unskilled manual work.” In the financial year 2015-16, Rs.42,084 crore was spent on MGNREGA. As there has been no serious attempt to rank the implementation of MGNREGA across States so far, we assessed the implementation of the Act by the States between 2015 and 2016.

Performance indicators

We selected three performance indicators to rank the States: average days of employment per household, percentage wages paid within the promised 15 days of enlisting to work, and the work completion rate. Each indicator measures the implementation of MGNREGA in the State on an important output. Collectively the three indicators capture the key aspects of MGNREGA implementation, namely, employment generation, wages paid in time, and assets created as promised.

First, even though MGNREGA guarantees 100 days of employment, the national average has always been below 50 days. Comparing this value across States, we found that Tripura was able to provide 95 days of employment on average. Manipur and Goa were at the lower end, providing 16 and 18 days of employment, respectively.Second, MGNREGA requires that wages be paid within 15 days of closing the muster roll. Last financial year, only 40 per cent of the wages were paid within the stipulated time of 15 days. Manipur stood out in this case with 82 per cent of wages being paid within 15 days while Meghalaya was only able to pay wages for 4 per cent of the people on time.

Third, work completion rate refers to the number of works completed compared to works started, in percentage terms. Mizoram performed best in this case with a 92 per cent work completion rate. Tripura, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh also had work completion rates of above 80 per cent. Arunachal Pradesh was at the bottom at just 20 per cent work completion rate.

Performance score

The absolute values of each performance metric are scaled to a value between 0 and 10 by dividing with the highest value across States (to get a value between 0 and 1) and multiplying it by 10. We added up the scores across all performance indicators to come up with the score out of 30. The stacked bar chart ranking the States on their overall score out of 30 is shown in the graphic.

Findings

It is interesting that two north-eastern States are at either extreme of the ranking: Tripura on top with a score of 26.8 and Arunachal Pradesh at the bottom with a score of 7.1. Mizoram was a close second with a score of 26.3. Chhattisgarh, Goa, Meghalaya and Punjab all ranked second from the bottom with a score of 12.7. Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand were two major States with a high ranking. West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh were major States with a low score of 14.

This ranking intends to give an overview to the policymakers of what works in each State and what doesn’t. The implementation practices from the high-ranking States in each category could be replicated in other States. For example, looking at the macro picture it is not clear why MGNREGA is able to provide below 50 days of employment on average nationally. This is possible due to shortage of funds or due to lack of demand for work due to low wage rates. The reasons could vary across and within States. Analysing the State-wise data, we see that Tripura was able to generate about 95 days of employment per household. The reasons for the high employment days in Tripura need to be studied, so that they can be replicated in other similar States. Similarly, a big State such as Andhra Pradesh was able to pay 80 per cent of the wages within the promised 15 days of enlisting to work, and Madhya Pradesh was able to achieve 82 per cent work completion rate. The best practices in each of these high-performing States should be documented and shared with the other States, so that the performance of each State can go up. For example, Andhra Pradesh is known for widespread computerisation of the processes which reduces corruption and ensures timely transfer of funds.

The Centre seems committed to MGNREGA. About 2 per cent of the Union Budget or 0.3 per cent of the GDP is allocated to the scheme. Ensuring that this amount reaches the people who opt to work, while creating durable rural assets, is important. This mega scheme needs local fixes and innovations to become more efficient and effective. This points out the aspects of implementation lacking in various States and gives an idea about where to look to make implementation successful. The ranking also recognises States that are performing well, and can be used to allocate funds and resources in a targeted manner.

Shobhit Mathur is Executive Director of Vision India Foundation. Nomesh Bolia is an associate professor at IIT Delhi.

Date: 31-05-16

Pulgaon blaze

Fire at largest ammunition depot highlights security shortcomings

A massive fire at the Central Ammunition Depot in Pulgaon, Maharashtra, has led to an extraordinary number of deaths and injuries to army personnel. The Pulgaon depot, located 110 km from Nagpur, is the largest ammunition centre in India that stores a wide range of munitions. The blaze which began in the early hours of the morning required 10 fire engines working for nearly five hours to be brought under control. Meanwhile, civilians living in the vicinity of the depot had to be evacuated. A probe has been ordered to ascertain the exact cause of the fire.

It goes without saying that the Pulgaon depot holds immense strategic significance for the army given its size and quality of ammunitions. This is precisely why sabotage – no matter how remote the possibility – can’t be completely ruled out at this point. True, the depot was well-guarded. But investigators need to consider the probability of an inside job. The second area of focus of the probe should be internal processes. If the blaze turns out to be an accident, two questions arise: How did such a mishap occur at a highly sensitive military depot and why couldn’t the fire be brought under control quickly without casualties?

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar is supposed to be one of the better performers in the NDA ministry. He cannot evade responsibility and must ensure such incidents aren’t repeated. It’s tragic that the armed forces are losing men and hardware to incidents that are extraneous to their service. Consider that the Indian navy has suffered a spate of accidents in recent years. This clearly highlights procedural lacunae which, going by the Pulgaon fire, haven’t been addressed properly. Parrikar needs to act now in undertaking a thorough overhaul of safety procedures in the armed forces.